Shug McGaughey’s first time in the shine of horse racing’s brightest spotlight has elicited a trait never before exhibited by the veteran thoroughbred conditioner. Shug has uncharacteristically gushed superlatives about the physical state of Orb since winning the Derby two weeks ago.

Usually reserved, McCaughey (a Hall of Famer) has always been inclined to point out the difficulty of winning big races. He’s never been cocky. He’s as gracious and understated as they come when he wins. But Orb is doing so well, says Shug, it’s hard not to think seriously about taking down the elusive Triple Crown.

A Monday morning workout at Belmont went so fast and so easy for Orb, Shug seems convinced he has a special horse who didn’t empty the tank with the big run the first Saturday in May.

Everybody’s rooting for Orb and it seems like most of what’s left of the racing press is picking the attractive brown colt to win the Preakness.

Orb has won five races in a row. The steady, evenly-spaced improvement progression since first finding the winner’s circle last Thanksgiving weekend at the Big A is what you’d expect from a patient trainer like Shug.

Problem is, the irresistible temptation to attempt capture of the Triple Crown means Orb is being rushed back to the starting gate. Back now on just two weeks rest after a career-best effort at a classic distance, Orb will be asked to repeat that effort in short order.

If McGaughey’s recent trainer-speak is not clouded by Crown fever, perhaps Orb is indeed a super horse who will enjoy an easy win on Saturday evening.

But from the perspective of a gambler, Orb is a bet against at a win pool price of a dollar for a dollar. The jockeys riding the five or six horses ahead of Orb at the mile mark of this race will listen and watch for the favorite’s late rush and may get in the way. Orb’s great trip in the Derby is partly a testament to his versatility and his jockey’s great ability to monitor pace, but there’s nothing automatic about a repeat.

I like Oxbow to win. You’ll get a return in excess of 25 bucks on a two dollar win bet. Oxbow will sit off the honest pace with a jockey who has won the Preakness twice (Gary Stevens) and watch the speed demons shorten stride at about seven furlongs. As Oxbow runs the final three-sixteenths of a mile, he’ll have just enough cushion to stave off stablemate Will Take Charge and a Derby winner who can‘t find the burst button.

Your Preakness triple will look like this:

Oxbow
Will Take Charge
Orb